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Mtts, ACP y análisis de mano

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Copa américa: No me extenderé mucho en este punto, ya que no me gustó para nada que sea tan hyper mega turbo 😛
Lo positivo es el volumen que tenemos, pienso que será suficiente para meter a Chile en la final en vivo; si bien es parejo contra México, contra países como Costa Rica se notará mucho más que el volumen de chilenos es bien grande.
Lo negativo: La estructura, la encuentro realmente mala. Entre esto y la mezcla en que cada jugador se toma el máximo de tiempo para actuar, no hay tiempo para jugar… Como uso HM puedo ver cuantas manos pasan y ayer por ejemplo me alcanzaron a repartir 11 manos antes de “blindearme” y estar short xD… Creo que así es poco el póker que se puede ver, pero como dicen: a llorar a la fifa! 😛
Sólo nos queda adaptarnos a este nuevo estilo de póker y entender que con 4bb aún tenemos fold equity (?) En principio tenía como meta clasificar y pensaba que sería “semi fácil”, ahora veo que será casi imposible jejeje…
En fin, le deseo mucha suerte a todos y ojalá se arme un buen equipo!

Mtts

Generalmente estoy jugando mtts los lunes, miércoles y domingos. En resultados monetarios hasta ahora voy “mal”, lo pongo así pq en verdad es mega std no pegarle a una ft en tan corto tiempo. En ese sentido estoy tranquilo porque todos los días que he jugado he hecho deep runs, he terminado en lugares entre los 20-40 varias veces (de un field de 1k-5k) así que estoy muy conforme con la evolución que he tenido. He tomado los consejos de Gastón y algunos me resultaron bien rápidamente y en otros tengo que adaptarme mejor o acostumbrarme por así decirlo.
El resto de los días como fraccioné mi bank entre mtts y “el resto”, bajé a nl10 y en verdad es hermoso ese nivel, es mega tranquilo hahaha, servirá para la confianza 😛

Análisis de mano: Esta mano la vi en una página y me pareció un spot complicado, le cambiaré algunas cosas. Estamos en un torneo quedando 14 jugadores. Estamos sobre el promedio por poco. Ciegas: 10k/20k/3k
Nuestro stack: 852k (42bb app); Stack del rival: 920k.
Tenemos AQo y raiseamos a 40k, nos pagan dos jugadores agresivos, uno en el botón y el otro es la ciega grande.
El flop viene: Qd Jh 7h, la bb checks y nosotros cbeteamos 90k, el botón paga y la ciega grande foldea.
El turn es el 8c y check/calleamos la apuesta de botón de 150k.
El river es el 5s, pasamos y nuestro oponente apuesta 500k, dejando 140k atrás y nosotros tenemos 569k atrás. Qué harían?

Mi análisis es así:
Preflop: Si mi oponente es competente puede pagar con manos monstruos como AA-KK, etc., sabiendo que la bb es aggro y puede hacer un squeeze por ejemplo. Sin embargo, al tener alrededor de 45bb pienso que se inclinaría en 3betear por valor para agrandar el pozo. Así que por ahora el rango del rival sigue siendo muy amplio, me paga con cualquier par, suited connectors, suited con gapers, etc.
Flop: Aquí digo que hay mucha info; primero, si hubiese sólo pagado preflop con AA, KK, QQ, ese flop lo raisea sí o sí imo, es super wet y le pagarán muchas manos peores ya que tiene una imagen aggro. Si tuviese algún combo draw lo raisea, any set lo raisea, creo que sólo paga con manos como KTo, KQo, alguna J, con 9T, con AK para el bd fd + gutshot, etc. Así que acá achicamos mucho su rango.
Turn: acá el rival apuesta un poco menos de half pot. Lo primero que pienso es que no tiene sentido subir pq le botamos todos sus bluffs, y nos aislamos contra mejores manos solamente, me cuesta ver manos con las que vayamos perdiendo y que foldeen. Lo otro es que si bien se armaron manos como T9, acá debemos decidir el destino de la mano: si pago este turn ya sabemos que se nos viene big bet en el river, al ser nuestro oponente competente y aggro, así que si el river es blank, y pago el turn, entonces pago river. Es como el momento clave de la mano. Además apuesta todos los proyectos que tenga como KT, los flush draws, etc.
River: como adelantaba, creo que si pago turn, pago river blank, ya que apuesta 500k en pot de 631k, en esta instancia arriesgamos 500k para ganar un pot de 1631k, por lo que para que nuestro call sea rentable debemos estar en lo correcto un poco menos de un tercio de las veces (31% app), y dada nuestras lecturas explicadas anteriormente, pienso que es call. Otro factor que considero siempre en los torneos es en cómo afectará mi decisión, en el sentido de que los primeros 3 lugares en mtts son los únicos que importan imo, entonces creo que es un buen spot para capitalizar con fichas nuestro posible edge.
Qué harías tú?

(si tiene una opinión pónganla, así generamos debates constructivos, los cuales son la intención de este post)

Pd.1: Vamos Chile!!! Espero que cerremos nuestro paso al mundial de Brasil hoy! 😀
Pd.2: Keno Mena rulz!
pd.3: Esuchen SinKarma!

Sl2!

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