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Aprende a usar la calculadora de probabilidades


Cuando juegas al poker online en PokerStars, es bastante fácil saber si has tenido suerte al ganar un gran bote en una mano o has sufrido un desafortunado “bad beat” al perder otro. ¿Te han reventado tus ases con reyes? Mala suerte. ¿Has completado un color en el river después de que todo el dinero acabase en el centro tras el turn cuando te enfrentabas a un trío? Buena suerte.

Sin embargo, no basta con saber esto, que es bastante básico. Lo que resulta más importante, y es crucial cuando llega el momento de ayudarte a mejorar tus habilidades de poker, es saber cuán afortunado o desafortunado has sido. Podría haber sido básicamente una situación 50/50 para ganar, o podrías haber completado tu jugada en el river con la única carta que te valía para ganar. Son situaciones muy diferentes, pero ambas pueden tener el mismo resultado. La única forma de saber a ciencia cierta lo afortunado que has sido es ver las “odds” (la probabilidad) que tienes para ganar (o perder) en estas situaciones. Es posible hacerse una idea estimada mentalmente, pero, existen calculadoras de probabilidades a prueba de fallos que se encargará por ti de la parte de las matemáticas complicadas.

Vamos a empezar por guiarte en el proceso de usar la Calculadora de probabilidades, para después pasar a ver formas en las que puedes usarla para mejorar tu juego.

Usar la calculadora de probabilidades

Paso 1: Haz clic en cualquier avatar e introduce las dos cartas propias de ese jugador. Para que aparezca el cálculo, es necesario introducir al menos las cartas propias de otro jugador. Muchos botes acaban en un heads-up, así que dos jugadores es todo lo que necesitas. Sin embargo, si hay un bote completo, con muchos jugadores implicados, puedes introducir las cartas de cualquier jugador en la mesa que desees. Si sólo quieres información sobre las probabilidades de cada mano antes del flop, continúa y haz clic en “CALCULAR”. El porcentaje de éxito (también conocido como “equity”) se mostrará en pantalla.

Paso 2: A veces quieres profundizar un poco más en tu análisis de manos y revisar cómo respondieron las manos en el flop, o también en el turn. Para hacer esto, sólo tienes que hacer clic en cualquiera de las cartas comunitarias y podrás introducir el flop específico que tú quieras. Cuando hayas acabado, pulsa “OK”. Si quieres ir más allá y ver los porcentajes en el turn, selecciona cuatro cartas en lugar de tres. Haz clic en “CALCULAR” y el nuevo porcentaje de la probabilidad de ganar se mostrará claramente.

Paso 3: Haz clic en “RESULTADO” si quieres ver un vista más clara de cómo se comportan las manos entre sí. Haz clic en “COMPARTIR” si quieres hacer partícipes de tu éxito o tu fracaso a tus amigos del poker, pero acuérdate de no publicar demasiadas historias sobre “bad beats” si quieres conservar a estos amigos.

Y ya está, es así de fácil.

Aprender con la calculadora de probabilidades

Aunque usar la calculadora de probabilidades es bastante sencillo y directo, no es algo que te plantees hacer cuando te enfrentas a una decisión complicada en el medio de una mano de poker Lo más probable es que agotes tu tiempo y, lo más importante, sólo podrás ofrecer una estimación de las cartas tapadas de tus oponentes, ya que el poker es un juego de información incompleta. Donde la calculadora de probabilidades realmente demuestra su valor es en la revisión de juego posterior a una sesión.

Es una buena idea marcar cualquier mano interesante que juegues en una sesión en la que haya que tomar una decisión difícil. Una vez hayas acabado de jugar, introduce las manos (y las cartas de la mesa, si se trata de una decisión posterior al flop) en la calculadora de probabilidades para descubrir cuál era tu porcentaje de éxito. Digamos que te encuentras con un all-in sobredimensionado en el flop y tienes un proyecto de color. Es difícil decidir si debes igualar o retirarte si no sabes tu probabilidad de éxito. Pero una vez que usas la calculadora de probabilidades y ves que sólo tienes un 33 % de probabilidad de ganar, como suele ser el caso con el proyecto de color, las matemáticas te dicen que igualar es claramente un error y que retirarse es la opción correcta. Esto se debe a que no recibes las “pot odds” (relación entre la apuesta necesaria para igualar y el bote) correctas para igualar, algo que sólo puedes saber una vez que conoces cuáles son las probabilidades.

La calculadora de probabilidades no sólo te ayudará a tomar las decisiones correctas en el futuro, sino que también puede ser útil como herramienta para estudiar las probabilidades en situaciones importantes que aparecen una y otra vez en el Texas Hold’em. Éstas pueden ir desde un A-K contra Q-Q (43 %/57 %) hasta un 8-7 del mismo palo contra un Q-J de distinto palo (40 %/60 %), o cualquier otra que te apetezca.

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